The efficient, wire-to-wire game this season has been as difficult for the New Orleans Saints as holding water in your hands.
Spots of excellence haven't been enough to prevent losses in six of the first seven games entering Sunday against NFC South Division-leading Tampa Bay (5-2) in the Caesars Superdome. This would be a great time to put one together, because that's what will be needed to take down the Buccaneers.
1. NO SHARING
When you commit four turnovers, you pretty much seal your fate. That's what the Saints did against Chicago, and generally even teams with Super Bowl aspirations can't overcome that. Quarterback Spencer Rattler turned it over once in the first six games before losing a fumble and throwing three interceptions against the Bears, so there's no reason to expect that to be a trend. Now that he and receiver Chris Olave (196 yards and two touchdowns on 11 catches the last two weeks) have established some rhythm, hopefully the threat can provide some space in Tampa Bay's defense. The Bucs are plus-4 in turnover margin this season; New Orleans can't afford for that number to increase.
2. PLUG THE HOLES
Rattler wasn't the lone struggler against the Bears – New Orleans' defense surrendered a whopping 222 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 40 carries. And while Tampa Bay averages a pretty pedestrian 99.6 rushing yards per game – 67 per game in the last three – the Bucs are going to test a run defense that allows 129 yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt. The Saints must be sounder than against Chicago, and missed tackles have to shrink. The first guy to the ballcarrier, often linebacker Demario Davis, has to get him on the ground or hold him up until help arrives.
3. SHAKE BAKE(R)
Having said that, Tampa Bay is coming off a game in which quarterback Baker Mayfield (1,767 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions) attempted 50 passes and the team ran 12 times (Teddy Bridgewater's kneeldown counted as one of those rushing attempts). There's no doubt Mayfield (22 carries for 158 yards) is going to test the Saints' secondary and front seven, because he's mobile and if he's not buying extra time, he's occasionally trying to plow over a defender down the field. The Bucs won't have future Hall of Famer Mike Evans at receiver, but rookie Emeka Egbuka (31 catches for 527 yards and five touchdowns) has been their top producer and Mayfield trusts him. Tampa Bay isn't likely to attempt 50 passes Sunday, but it won't be bashful about tossing it around the yard, either. Any quarterback under pressure is a turnover candidate, edge rusher Chase Young and his friends have to apply it.
4. KICK IN THE PANTS
New Orleans' kicking game hasn't been great in any area, and has been below average in the two most visible ones. Kicker Blake Grupe is 14 of 20 on field-goal attempts, including three misses from less than 50 yards. Punter Kai Kroeger is at 34.3 net yards per punt and rarely has flipped the field. The Saints need something – anything – good to happen to recharge the kicking teams.
5. HOLD THE LINE
It's no coincidence that after center Erik McCoy was injured in the third game last season and missed seven straight, New Orleans' offensive production nose-dived. McCoy is that important and, unfortunately, he again is lost for the season due to an injury. Luke Fortner replaced him after McCoy's injury against Chicago and is expected to draw the start. He may not have McCoy's skill and prowess, but he'll need to present a reasonable facsimile of him. As important as McCoy is, the offense can't again fall off a cliff. A team averaging 17.9 points per game – fourth fewest in the league – doesn't have many backward steps to take.
